SIT::MACRO DESK
t3/5
11:58:59
critical
United States

Fed / jobs / macro data path

Jobs / Fed path week — reaction > prediction

Do not average into a thesis during the data release. Let the first impulse settle, then swing the structure.

timeline
Data window

Oil Prices Drop as Markets Assess Federal Reserve’s Inflation Stance - Business Post Nigeria

Transmission

Payrolls → rate path → real yields → growth multiples.

T+1 to T+5

Follow-through in yields defines whether the swing sticks.

scenarios
Soft landing print
Base

Yields ease, tech/growth lead, high-beta reclaims SMAs.

Hot jobs / sticky inflation
Alt

Yields up, multiple compression, quality defensive bid.

Hard slowdown scare
Tail

Risk-off then rate-cut bid — trade only liquid names.

playbook
risk-on

Dovish data reaction: buy dips in memory/AI leaders with tight invalidation under VWAP.

risk-off

Hawkish reaction: fade rips into declining 50-SMA; prefer cash over forced shorts.

hedges

Index options through the print; avoid overnight micro-cap risk.

watch
  • · Nonfarm payrolls / unemployment
  • · 2s10s curve
  • · NVDA/MU as high-beta rate proxies
  • · USD DXY impulse
channels
Rates / USD
Payrolls + Fed path dominate
volatile
Mega-cap tech
Sensitive to real yields
mixed
wires
Business Post Nigeria
Oil Prices Drop as Markets Assess Federal Reserve’s Inflation Stance - Business Post Nigeria
The Business Times
Oil settles lower on clues about Fed policy, rumours of Hormuz deal - The Business Times
ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
Wall Street week ahead: The market eyes the monthly jobs report - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
The New York Times
Weak Jobs Report Does Not Eliminate Prospects of a September Rate Rise - The New York Times
NBC News
The Fed holds interest rates for a fifth consecutive meeting, underscoring inflation fears - NBC News
ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
Fed holds interest rates steady as economy weathers resurgent inflation - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos